Planning with a Futurology Approach for the Development of Inland Petrochemical Hubs

Abstract

Objective: The necessity of optimal policymaking in the petrochemical industry has consistently been highlighted as one of the strategic priorities in the country's overarching documents, such that the role of these policies in securing the national interests of current and future generations cannot be overlooked. For this reason, considering future-based scenarios regarding the petrochemical industry, especially the establishment of inland hubs within the developmental horizon of the country, is crucial and this is conducted with the aim of planning with a futurology approach for the development of inland petrochemical hubs. Methodology: In this study, qualitative content analysis, scenario formulation, prioritization of propositions, robust planning under conditions of uncertainty, and strategic evaluation methods have been employed across three phases. In this context, interviews were conducted with 20 experts. Findings: Based on the research findings, optimistic scenarios are predicated on the reduction of sanctions, economic stability and exchange rate, foreign financing, participation of domestic investors, and access to technology, provided that the government is directly involved. Achieving these conditions requires a shift in foreign policy aimed at sanction relief, which, in turn, is expected to facilitate the realization of other conditions. In moderate scenarios, the importance of sanction reduction remains vital, and without it, the development of petrochemical hubs seems unattainable. Conclusion: Accordingly, the manner of government intervention in these projects and its collaboration with other institutions and various sectors will play a significant role in the status of these projects.