Causal Analysis of the Relationships among Guerrilla Marketing, Risk Aversion, and Purchase Intention for Sporting Goods

Abstract

Objective: This study aimed to analyze the causal relationships among guerrilla marketing, risk aversion, and consumers’ purchase intention for sporting goods in Isfahan, Iran.

Methodology: This applied study employed a descriptive, causal-correlational design and was conducted using a survey strategy. The statistical population comprised all consumers of sporting goods in Isfahan. Because the population size was unknown and considered unlimited, the required sample size was estimated at 384 participants using Cochran’s formula. Ultimately, 371 fully completed questionnaires were included in the analysis. Participants were selected through stratified random sampling. Data were collected using standardized questionnaires assessing guerrilla marketing, risk aversion, and purchase intention, with responses rated on a five-point Likert scale. The content validity of the instruments was confirmed by experts in sport management and marketing. Cronbach’s alpha coefficients were 0.87 for guerrilla marketing, 0.79 for risk aversion, and 0.85 for purchase intention. Data were analyzed using the Kolmogorov–Smirnov test, one-sample t-test, and partial least squares structural equation modeling. Statistical analyses were performed in SPSS version 23 and SmartPLS version 3.

Findings: The one-sample t-test indicated that guerrilla marketing was significantly below the theoretical average, whereas risk aversion and purchase intention were significantly above the theoretical average (p<0.001). Structural equation modeling demonstrated that guerrilla marketing had a positive and significant effect on consumers’ purchase intention (β=0.89, t=90.04, p<0.001). Guerrilla marketing also exerted a positive and significant effect on risk aversion (β=0.52, t=7.87, p<0.001). Furthermore, risk aversion positively and significantly predicted purchase intention for sporting goods (β=0.37, t=5.42, p<0.001). The coefficients of determination were 0.80 for purchase intention and 0.79 for risk aversion. Composite reliability and average variance extracted values also supported the adequacy of the measurement and structural models.

Conclusion: Guerrilla marketing can strengthen consumers’ intention to purchase sporting goods both directly and through its relationship with risk aversion. Accordingly, sporting goods companies and retailers should employ creative, unconventional, cost-effective, and trust-building marketing practices to reduce consumers’ uncertainty, facilitate purchase decisions, and improve sales and profitability.