اثرات تکانهای توسعه پایدار بر انتشار دیاکسید کربن در ایران با تأکید بر نقش جهانیشدن اقتصاد با رویکرد ساختاری
کلمات کلیدی:
توسعه پایدار, انتشار دی اکسید کربن , جهانی شدن اقتصاد , کیفیت نهادی, خودگرسیون برداری ساختاریچکیده
هدف: هدف این پژوهش بررسی اثرات تکانهای توسعه پایدار بر انتشار دیاکسید کربن در ایران با تأکید بر نقش جهانیشدن اقتصاد و کیفیت نهادی است. روششناسی: پژوهش حاضر از نظر هدف کاربردی و از نظر ماهیت توصیفی–تحلیلی و در زمره مطالعات پسرویدادی است. جامعه آماری کشور ایران بوده و دادههای سالانه دوره ۱۳۷۰ تا ۱۴۰۳ مورد استفاده قرار گرفته است. برای تحلیل روابط پویای میان متغیرها از الگوی خودرگرسیون برداری ساختاری (SVAR) در نرمافزار EViews استفاده شد. پیش از برآورد مدل، آزمون ریشه واحد فیلیپس–پرون برای بررسی مانایی متغیرها و آزمون همانباشتگی یوهانسن–یوسیلیوس برای تشخیص روابط بلندمدت اجرا گردید. متغیرهای اصلی شامل انتشار دیاکسید کربن، توسعه پایدار، جهانیشدن اقتصادی (تجارت)، کیفیت نهادی، توسعه مالی، سرمایه، نیروی کار و حجم نقدینگی بودند. یافتهها: نتایج برآورد الگوی SVAR نشان داد تکانههای ناشی از توسعه پایدار اثر منفی و معناداری بر انتشار دیاکسید کربن دارند. همچنین اثر تکانههای جهانیشدن اقتصادی بر آلودگی زیستمحیطی در بلندمدت معنادار تشخیص داده شد. ضرایب ساختاری در معادلات مدل از نظر آماری معنادار بوده و توابع واکنش آنی بیانگر میرا بودن شوکها در طول زمان است. نتیجهگیری: یافتهها حاکی از آن است که تقویت توسعه پایدار، بهویژه در تعامل با تجارت و کیفیت نهادی، میتواند به کاهش انتشار دیاکسید کربن در اقتصاد ایران منجر شود.
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حق نشر 2025 Minasadat Delbari, Khashayar Seyed Shokri, Marjan Damankeshideh, Shahriar Nessabian (Author)

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