A Dynamic Model for Analyzing Investment Policies in Iran's Oil Production and Its Scenarios

Abstract

various related scenarios. The study aims to identify and assess different financial and investment policies that could enhance investment attraction in Iran's oil industry.  Methodology: The study employs system dynamics and content analysis to develop the model. The statistical population for the content analysis includes upstream oil industry documents and related articles on investment. In the quantitative section, employees, managers, and experts in the oil industry were selected as the sample population. Data analysis was conducted using Vensim software, and nine different scenarios were developed to evaluate financial and investment policies.  Findings: The results revealed that intermediary financing, with an increase of 128.854 units, was identified as the most attractive policy. Debt-based financing, with an increase of 108.333 units, and financing based on underground reserves, with an increase of 69.580 units, followed. These findings highlight the importance of diversifying financial resources and utilizing innovative financial structures in Iran's oil industry.  Conclusion: The study concludes that a combination of different financial resources and the application of diversified financial policies can significantly contribute to attracting more investments and reducing financial risks in Iran's oil industry. These findings align with previous studies on financial and investment policies and provide valuable insights for policymakers in Iran's oil sector.