Population Growth and Pollution in Post-1990 India: Evidence from a Bivariate ARDL Analysis

Abstract

Objective: The aim of this study was to examine the short-run and long-run relationship between population growth and carbon dioxide emissions in India after the 1990 economic reforms using the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model and critical ethnographic analysis.

Methods and Materials: This study employed a mixed-methods approach integrating econometric analysis with critical ethnographic research. In the quantitative section, annual time-series data for India from 1990 to 2023 were collected from sources including the World Bank, the International Monetary Fund, and the International Labour Organization. Per capita carbon dioxide emissions were considered as the primary indicator of environmental pressure, while total population was used as the main explanatory variable. Following ADF and KPSS unit root tests, a bivariate ARDL model was applied to estimate both short-run and long-run relationships among the variables. Bounds testing, lag-length selection based on the Akaike Information Criterion (AIC), and the Error Correction Model (ECM) were also conducted. In the qualitative section, ethnographic fieldwork was carried out in March 2025 in the cities of Calangute, Mumbai, Pune, Delhi, and Jaipur. Data were collected through direct observation, informal interviews, and documentation of urban environmental conditions.

Findings: The ARDL results indicated that total population growth in India did not have a statistically significant or stable long-run relationship with CO₂ emissions, and the long-run population elasticity was not statistically significant (β = 1.26, p = 0.14). The error correction term was also statistically insignificant, suggesting the absence of a stable long-run equilibrium between the variables. However, evidence showed that urban population concentration had a positive association with increased pollution emissions in both the short and long run. Ethnographic findings further revealed substantial differences among cities. Delhi and Mumbai experienced severe environmental pressure and high pollution levels, whereas Pune demonstrated more balanced environmental conditions due to relatively stronger infrastructure management and urban planning. Overall findings suggested that environmental outcomes were influenced less by total population size itself and more by urban concentration, infrastructure capacity, governance quality, and development policies.

Conclusion: The findings demonstrated that population growth alone is not the primary determinant of environmental pollution in India, and its effects are mediated through urbanization, infrastructure systems, energy consumption patterns, and governance quality.