Presenting a Warranty Decision Model from the Perspective of Warranty Providers and Buyers Using an Agent-Based Approach
Keywords:
Warranty decisions, providers and buyers, agent, based model, riskAbstract
Objective: This study aimed to present a warranty decision model from the perspective of warranty providers and buyers using an agent-based approach and to analyze the effects of market conditions, buyers’ risk preferences, and firms’ performance improvement on warranty purchase and sales patterns.
Methodology: This quantitative and applied study employed a simulation-based modeling strategy. Agent-based modeling was used to analyze the interactions between warranty providers and buyers. The simulated market consisted of 30 warranty-providing firms and 200 buyers. Buyers were modeled according to three risk-preference conditions: risk-seeking, risk-averse, and mixed. Firms were differentiated based on product quality, product price, warranty period, and the percentage of parts covered by warranty. The model was implemented in NetLogo, and several scenarios were examined, including a normal market, a monopolistic market, and a market condition involving firms’ performance improvement.
Findings: The simulation results indicated that, under normal market conditions and when risk-seeking and risk-averse buyers were equally distributed, firms with different warranty policies, product quality levels, prices, warranty periods, and covered parts achieved relatively similar sales outcomes. In this condition, buyers’ preferences did not strongly shift the market toward a specific group of firms. In the monopolistic market scenario, success was concentrated among a limited number of warranty providers that demonstrated superior performance in at least two key factors, such as high product quality, low price, longer warranty period, or broader warranty coverage. The findings also showed that as more firms improved their performance, warranty providers increasingly interacted with risk-averse buyers. This pattern was mainly explained by the greater improvement in product quality compared with other performance factors, which increased the willingness of risk-averse buyers to purchase and even pay higher prices. Conversely, when all buyers were risk-seeking, firms offering lower-priced products, even with comparatively lower quality, performed more successfully in the market.
Conclusion: The agent-based model demonstrated that warranty decisions emerge from the dynamic interaction among firm characteristics, market structure, and buyers’ risk preferences. Therefore, warranty providers should design their warranty policies according to market conditions and customer behavioral patterns to improve sales performance and maintain competitive advantage.
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