Designing a Resilience Model for Oil-Dependent Economies Against Simultaneous Oil Price, Inflation, and Geopolitical Risk Shocks: An Exploratory Mixed-Methods Study

Abstract

Objective: This study aimed to design and validate a resilience model for oil-dependent economies against simultaneous oil-price, inflation, and geopolitical-risk shocks using an exploratory mixed-methods approach.

Methods and Materials: This applied study used an exploratory sequential mixed-methods design. In the qualitative phase, 20 experts in macroeconomics, energy economics, petroleum economics, economic policymaking, international economics, and risk management in Tehran were selected through purposive sampling. Data were collected through semi-structured interviews and analyzed using thematic analysis in MAXQDA. In the quantitative phase, a researcher-developed questionnaire based on the qualitative findings was administered to 384 university faculty members, researchers, managers, and economic and energy specialists in Tehran. Construct reliability and validity were assessed using factor loadings, Cronbach’s alpha, composite reliability, average variance extracted, and the HTMT criterion. The structural model was tested using partial least squares structural equation modeling in SmartPLS.

Findings: All 12 model dimensions had positive and statistically significant effects on oil-economy resilience. The strongest effects were observed for economic diversification (β = 0.274, p < 0.001), policymaking and crisis-response capacity (β = 0.251, p < 0.001), and institutional capacity and economic governance (β = 0.238, p < 0.001). These were followed by economic adaptive capacity (β = 0.193), monetary stability and inflation control (β = 0.181), geopolitical-risk management (β = 0.176), shock-absorption capacity (β = 0.168), fiscal and budgetary flexibility (β = 0.157), oil-revenue management (β = 0.149), recovery capacity (β = 0.126), energy-sector security and resilience (β = 0.121), and foreign-trade flexibility (β = 0.109). The final model explained 74.60% of the variance in oil-economy resilience (R² = 0.746). Predictive relevance and model fit were also satisfactory (Q² = 0.512; SRMR = 0.061).

Conclusion: Oil-economy resilience is a multidimensional outcome produced by the interaction of structural, institutional, fiscal, monetary, and policy capacities. Economic diversification, crisis-response capacity, and economic governance play particularly central roles; therefore, sustainable resilience requires coordinated policies aimed at reducing oil dependence, strengthening institutions, stabilizing macroeconomic conditions, and improving adaptive and recovery capacities.